GOP Could Pick Up Roughly 19 House Seats After SCOTUS Guts VRA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Supreme Court strikes down Louisiana's map, enabling potential GOP gains.

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Louisiana’s congressional map on Wednesday and sharply limited the use of race in drawing district boundaries in a major ruling that could carry significant consequences for future House elections. In comparison to 2024 maps, the decision could increase the Republican dominance in the House by an extra 19 seats and alter voting throughout the South. Louisiana had been ordered by lower courts to create a second majority-Black congressional district in 2024 to comply with Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which bars states from diluting minority voting strength. The Trump administration and state officials challenged the revised map, arguing it amounted to an unconstitutional racial gerrymander in violation of the 14th Amendment, which guarantees equal protection under the law, reports said on Wednesday.

In a majority opinion, Justice Samuel Alito said that “because the Voting Rights Act did not require Louisiana to create an additional majority-minority district, no compelling interest justified the State’s use of race in creating SB8, and that map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.” About one-third of Louisiana’s residents are African-American, and the state’s only two Democratic lawmakers in Congress (compared to four House Republicans) were elected from majority-black districts. The ruling carries immense weight, with two prominent voting rights organizations noting earlier that the removal or restriction of Section 2 will likely empower Republican-led legislatures to change the boundaries of as many as 19 congressional districts to their advantage, in order to comply with the court.